The State of Higher Education in 2019, expert services giant Grant Thornton predicts that brick-and-mortar, unmarried-area schools will become “artifacts of the beyond, on the street to consolidation, and a peculiar destiny.” The record envisions traditional campuses going “the way of the nook drugstore,” replaced by using country great chains employing economies of scale and steady requirements.
According to the Grant Thornton file, a hard and fast of things – demographic changes, the value will increase, declining country appropriations, more opposition, and shifting customer demand – will inevitably pressure the loss of life of conventional campuses at the side of the upward push of a new business version: national universities that get right of entry to college students across you. S. By combining online studying with more than one, limited physical locations wherein face-to-face interactions with school and other students might take vicinity. Three possible models had been recommended:
Major universities with the assets and recognition to head it on my own, enlarging their already enormous footprints thru notably new investments in online structures and advertising and marketing. The recent assertion using the University of Massachusetts that it’s miles making plans a national online university is an instance.
A quantity of smaller, like-missioned universities merging into large establishments serving students national.
Several establishments work as wonderful manufacturers underneath an umbrella business enterprise, similar to the gathering of hotels owned via Marriott – Ritz Carlton for luxurious, Sheraton for commercial enterprise, and Courtyard for tourists.
To be sure, proponents of country great universities have a successful model to which they can point, and momentum in the direction of nationalization is apparent. Witness the dimensions of mega universities like Western Governors University (117,000 college students) and Southern New Hampshire University (more than 90,000 college students) or the growing power of Purdue University Global and Arizona State University Online, which offers more than a hundred diploma packages online.
More compelling, however, is an extraordinary prediction: Traditional faculties and universities aren’t going to come to be dinosaurs, lumbering toward extinction. Here are five reasons they will continue to be resilient and sturdy, not merely surviving, but in lots of cases thriving:
1. Colleges’ economic peril has been exaggerated. Yes, enrollments have dropped a bit, as they frequently do in the course of precise financial times, particularly at -yr colleges. And yes, a few tiny, private schools had been shuttered these days, but a lot of them were institutions that had been struggling financially for years. However, Harvard professor Clayton Christensen’s lots-ballyhooed 2011 declare that up to half of the kingdom’s private colleges would close in 10-15 years is nowhere near the pace he predicted. In truth, Mark Zupan, president of Alfred University, just presented Christiansen a friendly wager: if 1/2 of traditional universities fail or merge with the aid of 2030, he will deliver Christiansen’s institute $1 million, however if not, Christiansen might pay $1 million to Alfred’s endowment. Here’s a tip: Put your money on Zupan.
2. Traditional colleges have too many powerful constituencies. Grant Thornton identified this difficulty however chose to limit it. Brick-and-mortar colleges have some champions – alumni, college students, mother and father, donors, politicians, commercial enterprise executives, and network notion leaders. In many communities, the nearby college is the most important organization and the first economic multiplier. Many powerful human beings rely upon a host of offerings from and are invested in nearby colleges they love. They will now not relinquish them like just any other corner drugstore.